Last Updated: March 01, 2023, 15:46 IST
India is now experiencing below-average rainfall. Although monsoon rainfall can be less than 100%, other factors will also be at play.
The opposite of El Nino, which is a trend of extraordinary warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, is La Nina.
El Nino, a climatic phenomenon that is anticipated to lower monsoon rainfall to below 90% of the long-period average, has put India at risk of a drought this year, according to Institute of Climate Change Studies Director DS Pai. According to Pai, who participated in a Moneycontrol panel discussion, the effects of the high temperatures brought on by El Nino may last for a year.
“El Nino after three years of La Nina seems likely this year. In 1952, 1965, and 1972, the condition was similar to drought when the monsoon was below 90. The same situation is coming back now,” Pai said.
The opposite of El Nino, which is a trend of extraordinary warming of the Pacific Ocean’s surface waters, is La Nina. La Nina is linked to a lack of rainfall and drought in India and its surrounding areas. This is not a good sign for India where agriculture is the source of livelihood for the majority of the population. There may be a prolonged dry period due to the probable El Nino influence. The following year may be the warmest if El Nino peaks in the winter and persists until the spring of 2024. If El Nino persists, the temperature record could be broken in 2024, according to Pai.
“A few more days of high heat are likely. By May, we anticipate it to become neutral. El Nino begins to develop in the Pacific during the spring and picks up steam over the winter. El Nino forecasting is challenging at first. To forecast the El Nino scenario and its effects on the weather pattern, we must wait one to two months. El Nino has caused nine monsoons since 1950 to have insufficient rainfall,” DS Pai said.
India is now experiencing below-average rainfall. Although monsoon rainfall can be less than 100%, other factors will also be at play. La Nina is still going strong and will take some time to become a permanent phenomenon. Rainfall in September, the final month of the monsoon, may be impacted by El Nino. It is vital to how the monsoon will behave at the start, according to Pai.
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